一部作品要被稱為經典，那它必須要經過時間的證明。而此書成書已近百年，仍然為不少交易者所拜讀，而且有好些出版商也一直在印刷本書，我讀的就是 2020 年版的，可見此書的地位。正如書背後所寫的：

只要明天股市還會開盤，這本書就會繼續出現在贏家的書架上，因為市場永遠不會錯，只有人性會犯錯。

故事主人翁是 Larry Livingston，也就是傳奇交易員 Jessie Livermore 的投射。雖然我看很多人似乎把兩者混為一談，但是我還是認為應該把故事和真實分開來看，就如我不認為諸葛亮真的會借東風一樣。

無論如何，說此書為交易者的聖經實不為過。

由於本書本身有些句子有首尾呼應的情況，所以一般情況下我會分類分享。不過這次的篇幅比較長，所以就獨立拿出來分享了。

這應該是大家引用得最多的故事，為免引起版權問題，所以引用的部分還是用原文 (英文) 。另外，本來自己也想寫一下自己的看法，可是後來自覺學藝未精，所以只是引述原文算了。至於文章所寫的有沒有參考價值，還是由讀者自行判斷吧。

原文連結：https://www.gutenberg.org/files/60979/60979-h/60979-h.htm

You know, it’s a bull market!

以下內文皆來自第五章，也是第五章的主題：

For instance, I had been bullish from the very start of a bull market, and I had backed my opinion by buying stocks. An advance followed, as I had clearly foreseen. So far, all very well… Everybody knew that the way to do that was to take profits and buy back your stocks on reactions… for I often took profits and waited for a reaction that never came. And I saw my stock go kiting up ten points more and I sitting there with my four-point profit safe in my conservative pocket…

Where I should have made twenty thousand dollars I made two thousand… About the time I discovered what a small percentage of what I should have made I was getting I discovered something else, and that is that suckers differ among themselves according to the degree of experience.

這裏說的是 Larry 雖然能準確預測漲跌，也能賺錢，但是經常出現「賣飛」的情況，導致投資表現不如理想。

然後本章主角出現了。

Time and again I heard him (就是 Mr. Partridge，人稱 Old Turkey) say, “Well, this is a bull market, you know!” as though he were giving to you a priceless talisman wrapped up in a million-dollar accident-insurance policy. And of course I did not get his meaning.

↑ 老火雞想像圖

One day a fellow named Elmer Harwood rushed into the office… told Turkey, “Mr. Partridge, I have just sold my Climax Motors. My people say the market is entitled to a reaction and that I’ll be able to buy it back cheaper. So you’d better do likewise. That is, if you’ve still got yours.”

“Yes, Mr. Harwood, I still have it. Of course!”…

“Well, now is the time to take your profit and get in again on the next dip,” said Elmer.

But Mr. Partridge shook his head regretfully and whined, “No! No! I can’t do that!”…

“Why not?” And Elmer drew nearer.

“Why, this is a bull market!” The old fellow said it as though he had given a long and detailed explanation.

“That’s all right,” said Elmer, looking angry because of his disappointment. “I know this is a bull market as well as you do. But you’d better slip them that stock of yours and buy it back on the reaction. You might as well reduce the cost to yourself.”

“My dear boy,” said old Partridge, in great distress—“my dear boy, if I sold that stock now I’d lose my position; and then where would I be?”

…

“I said I’d lose my position. And when you are as old as I am and you’ve been through as many booms and panics as I have, you’ll know that to lose your position is something nobody can afford; not even John D. Rockefeller. I hope the stock reacts and that you will be able to repurchase your line at a substantial concession, sir. But I myself can only trade in accordance with the experience of many years. I paid a high price for it and I don’t feel like throwing away a second tuition fee. But I am as much obliged to you as if I had the money in the bank. It’s a bull market, you know.”…

What old Mr. Partridge said did not mean much to me until I began to think about my own numerous failures to make as much money as I ought to when I was so right on the general market. The more I studied the more I realized how wise that old chap was. He had evidently suffered from the same defect in his young days and knew his own human weaknesses. He would not lay himself open to a temptation that experience had taught him was hard to resist and had always proved expensive to him, as it was to me.

…

That is why so many men in Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight.

Disregarding the big swing and trying to jump in and out was fatal to me. Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market your game is to buy and hold until you believe that the bull market is near its end. To do this you must study the general conditions and not tips or special factors affecting individual stocks. Then get out of all your stocks; get out for keeps! Wait until you see—or if you prefer, until you think you see—the turn of the market; the beginning of a reversal of general conditions. You have to use your brains and your vision to do this; otherwise my advice would be as idiotic as to tell you to buy cheap and sell dear. One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth—or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world…

作者都已經把自己的想法寫下來了，我就不多解釋了。